International Opinion Magazine

[Polesia]

International Opinion


International Opinion was founded over half a century ago in Breotonia by journalists across the globe who were determined to fight for the preservation of free speech and celebrate thediversity of opinion in our wold. Their legacy lives on as each week, the magazine invites writers from far and wide to give their view on the latest events unfolding across Europe.

These are their thoughts.
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[Josepania]

International Opinion

Analyzing Aresurai Reform
Democratic Reform? Or Despotic Bread and Circuses?
June 3, 2011 | LUNDEN | Stanley Yelnats

IT IS, of course, fairly difficult to determine the long-term, or even short-term, intentions of the so-called "Reformists" in Aresura, primarily because any stated intentions are so vague, deliberately or not, but also because of the international and internal drama unfolding day by day. Now that things have slowed down on both fronts, we can look at what has happened and what is happening, in an attempt, however futile, to predict what will happen.

What has happened can best be described as a roller coaster: a coup d' etat that engulfed the Aresurai Republic, save for the island cluster housing Axiflos. Total victory was inevitable, until interventionist, internationalist, radical democrats in Touzen deployed carrier battle groups to save the remnants at the last second. Boreas and the Celtic nations cried foul and disapproval, but the Touzen giant stands firm. A Cold War rapidly occurred, with periods of near-conflict, detente, and moves towards conflict again. Now, we are in a grudging detente once more, with talks going on between Touzen's Foreign Minister, and the enigmatic, de facto and soon to be de jure leader of Aresura's Reformists, ex-Captain Joseph Constantine.

What will result from the talks is unclear, but we can make a few educated guesses based upon the parties involved. Touzen first: the massive democracy to the east is powerful, and it knows it. The very idea that a democracy, however flawed it may be, should be rebelled against is heretical, unthinkable, and though recognition of the reality on the ground, that Constantine's militant group is the dominant power in Aresura for some time to come, is possible, it's unlikely Touzen will ever back down from its efforts to preserve the drastically diminished Aresurai Republic.

Then there's Constantine and his Reformists. A military man who has more luck than skill, more comfort in military than political or diplomatic matters, he nonetheless has already surrounded himself with the best minds Aresura can offer to negate his lack of experience and knowledge of what, exactly, he aims to be: a great leader. He is, for all his faults, ambitious, and cunning, and stubborn in his ideas for the future.

What those ideas are, however, is not clear. We can only listen to snippets of information passed on by anonymous sources and analysts who, once Constantine's name hit the international stage, poured over every single detail of his recorded life. What both point to, so far, is that Constantine at least partially understands what the Aresurai people really want: change.

Change, however, does not necessarily mean democracy. After all, until a few months ago, they had been living under a democracy for a century. But this was a rather unpopular democracy, hence why the coup went off as smoothly as it did, but more importantly, why it hasn't collapsed yet despite all that has occurred. The Reformists keep saying they want to just reform the Aresurai democratic process, but the people themselves? They don't seem to particularly care if it's purer democracy, or if its despotism wrapped in the cloak of democracy and dispensing bread, land, and peace. They want something different, something they can be proud of, something, anything, that isn't the ex-Aresurai Republic.

So will Constantine become the next European dictator, who is nonetheless smart enough to realize that, although all power flows through him, that same power comes from the people? We don't know, because there's little evidence that definitively says so either way. What we do know is that, no matter how the talks play out, change is coming to Aresura. And for the people of Aresura? That alone is good enough.

Copyright © The International Opinion 2011 | All rights reserved​

 

[Breotonia]

International Opinion

A Giant Poisoned
How Bantyric Venom May Topple the First Superstate
June 13, 2011 | LUNDEN | Theodore Stewart

Theodore Stewart is a columnist and literary critic at The State, The Implarian, European Affairs, Neodimokratía, Open Inquiry, and a media fellow at the Wilson Institution as well as the contributing editor for Vanité Affichage.

IT IS SAID, though it may very well be apocryphal, that Franconian colonialist in the Hajri desert would have to be sure to not let their horses stray near any stick or formation of the earth that resembled the coiled or otherwise twisted shape of a snake for, if they did, the startled animal would fling from its back its rider or whatever supplies it carried and flea in the most terrified passion. There was, as was said, a very slender snake whose venom was potent enough to paralyze within moment and kill within minutes an animal of a horse's size with a single quick bite. Supposedly the Franconian horses became aware of this danger early on and wisely integrated protective actions into their routine.

This may only be a story, part of the many fantastical tales that made it back to the West as adventures began to take a look at the world beyond, but it provides a helpful picture of what might, indeed what is likely to, be unfolding in the present trade and commercial dispute between the Bantyric state and its present rivals in the first economically integrated superstate of the Northern Council. While it is now clear that the shots that were fired in the beginning of what can only be honestly described as a war have pulverized the Bantyric economy and left it in a devastating position from which it will not recover in a generation it is not yet evident that the Northern Council will come out anywhere close to unscathed.

It seems highly possible, even inevitable, that the former President Murdoch of the Celtic nation, was able to impart to the Northern Council a final a devastating venomous bite before he himself met his end (rightfully) at the hands of his countrymen for treasonous mismanagement. With minimal examination the bite (the seizure of all Northern Council assets, valued at over €200 billion) seems damaging but not lethal. However, with investors not properly informed on the levels and locations of exposures and with no resolution clearly in sight, the businesses of the Northern Council are seen in an increasingly unpleasing light by investors. As every major exchange experiences dramatic and ongoing drops in the value of Northern Council stocks and assets we can only infer that confidence will not improve until a favorable resolution to the conflict has been brokered. Currently the Northern Dollar is trading on all major monetary exchanges as the lowest valued main currency and national debt of the alliance's member states are being poorly graded by international rating agencies as very risky investments.

The Bantyric economy has reached its lowest possible point. Short of a physical war that actually begins to destroy its assets and infrastructure, there is no way to further damage the Bantyric economic circumstances. Investors, if not exactly galloping, could be said to be gently trotting towards the wrecked Celtic economy to seize deals while prices remain so low. The Northern Council nations, however, have a great deal of distance to fall before they've reached the point at which investors are sure they can go no further. Short of a Herculean effort by the alliance to end the ongoing dispute and to shore up investor confidence there is every expectation by serious analysts, the author included, to witness the premature dissolution of the Northern Council and to witness the default or serious downgrade of national debt of its constituent nations.

Should nothing happen the Northern Council horse will fall victim to a single venomous bite by the enraged Bantyric serpent.

Copyright © The International Opinion 2011 | All rights reserved​

 

[Polesia]

International Opinion


As we enter the new year, International Opinion Magazine is to run a series of special articles written by guest authors on the future of countries, alliances and businesses in a bold but perhaps deluded attempt to predict their circumstances by the year's end, as Europe faces its greatest crisis in over half a century.
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