OOC: Lake Rwenbezi War

Discussion in 'OOC Threads' started by Gunnland, Apr 14, 2019.

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  1. Gunnland

    Gunnland FTR

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    Background

    Port Stanley (PS) has invaded Loagan territory in order to attack the combined forces of the League of Loagan Communists (LLC), Rwenbezi Armed National Uprising (RANU), and the Burukova Syndicate (BS). This comes despite warnings from Maseru not to do so.

    Both in population and in the size of its armed forces, PS is significantly smaller than Loago. However PS forces -- the Reiver Light Infantry (RLI) -- are well-trained and experienced in counter-insurgency against the RANU, whom they have fought since 1979. The RLI cannot expect to attack Que Que or Bulawayo, much less hold much territory. It's strategic objective is only to establish a base in western Loago to fight a long and protracted anti-insurgency campaign. The RLI is limited in its ability to counterattack the RANU-LLC-BS from Fort Smith itself, because its fireforce COIN strategy utilizes helicopters that cannot be risked over the cyclonic storms of Lake Rwenbezi?

    Why risk a war that could destabilize the region and backfire, since Loago has the capacity to invade PS and not vice versa? Basically, the PS government has no choice. The raison d'état for the war is known only to the new prime minister of PS, Dr. Octavia E. Butler, and her inner circle. An important internal faction in PS has gone over to the RANU-LLC-Burukova insurgency, and she fears a coup attempt from the still largely white-dominated army, the RLI. Furthermore, Chinde calculates that the time for war is auspicious. After the fall of Hika Qiltu, the Azraq Empire has been seen taking a harder line against the LLC. Dr. Butler was educated in Elephant and is a known admirer of governor Mathelda Ajogo, the E.T.C.O.S. governor.

    I'm going to import a large number of characters from previous RPs and here is a list of them:

    Principal Characters

    Octavia Butler, Prime Minister of Port Stanley (the new leader in Chinde)
    Anwanyu (matriarch in Fort Smith, secret senior leader)
    Salammbô (matriarch in Oriel, traitor gone over to the RANU)
    Comrade George "Georges" Battle, RANU leader (a fearsome, philosophical cannibal)
    Callum Marlow, Colonel-of-the-Army, Reiver Light Infantry (a white-rule holdover)

    Countess Mary (MacLeod), Emira of Port Stanley (the titular leader, on a wild hair)
    Joachas (Gunn), Prince Royal of Gunnland (a messiah-in-training, the legitimate Gunnish ruler)

    Robert Gunn, Duke of Clyth (chief of Clan Gunn, jack-of-all-plots)
    Adelaide MacLeod Elmert, Minister (feminist confidant of Queen Julian, former lover of Robert Gunn's)
    Oritsematosan Udomo, Gunnish MT (ambitious rival of Salammbô, political ally of Robert Gunn)


    Links

    Background information about PS:
    http://www.europe-game.eu/index.php?threads/commonwealth-of-port-stanley.13336/#post-350996

    Recent thread with W. Engell Republic and Azraq about Mary MacLeod:
    http://www.europe-game.eu/index.php?threads/the-macleod-approach.13496/

    Recent thread about some more of the characters above:
    http://www.europe-game.eu/index.php?threads/north-and-south-inside-gunnland-and-port-stanley.13355/

    Character RP that introduced PS:
    http://www.europe-game.eu/index.php?threads/in-farthest-himyar.13026/#post-346520
     
  2. Natal

    Natal Well-Known Member

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    I will link stuff from the LLD OOC thread and further introduce the Stanleyans on the map as things evolve. As of now the main characters:

    The Burukovas:
    • Lev Burukova, the patriarch of the Burukova Syndicate;
    • Zare Borisov, commander of the Burukova militia;
      • It is good to mention that this militia is made of many LLC fighters that either haven't followed Masimba in his war or after Operation Grapple and the loss of the coast have decided to return to safety in the Burukova lands, bringing with them many of the Pelasgian weapons given to them.
    The League of Communists:
    • Masimba, the main leader of the League of Communists, the Patriotic Front for the Liberation of Loago and the People's Liberation Army;
    • Comrade Punda, commander of the LLC guerrillas;
      • The LLC is now in a state of chaos as Natalians and NUG forces are pushing from the coast and now the Burukova lands soon to be under attack would be too much pressure, especially after Operation Grappling too. Its forces are dwindling on a daily basis, many surrendering to the NUG, others hoping that the Burukovas can shield them and more others just disappearing into hiding.
    The National Unity Government:
    • Moyo Kamara, Prime Minister of Loago and the head of the National Unity Government;
    • General Adhama Usian, supreme commander of the Security Forces;
    • General Peter Mariano Perez, commander of the Natalian Expeditionary Army Corps;
      • Besides the Security Forces (a total of 20,000 soldiers all over Loago) and the NEAC (a total of 6,000 soldiers), there are Elben volunteers too fighting with them (a total of 1,500). As the days progress they push in the interior and see many of the LLC fighters defecting to them, but the NUG doesn't see the deserters as being trustworthy so it doesn't really improve their stats.
     
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  3. Pohjanmaa

    Pohjanmaa Well-Known Member

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    How connected or disconnected is this from the original thread? Or will I need to RP in both now? (As I do have a Lions-Donkeys post coming)
     
  4. Gunnland

    Gunnland FTR

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    I'll double post relevant updates in the LLD thread.
     
  5. Gunnland

    Gunnland FTR

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    Probability game

    One reason that this is going to be a small and contained two-player front of the wider Bush War is that I want to test out a game. Ovi and I have agreed to introduce an element to this war to reflect contingencies and give a kind of objective cue, like to players loosely interpreting a dice roll. Every 3 days starting today we'll pull the first two numbers from @dailyrandomnums on Twitter. Today's is 43.

    The plan is that the PS attack gets more complicated logistically as it goes on, so the odds of "victory" go down -- .500, .450, .400, .350, .300 -- every two 3-day cycles. Today and Thursday, Loago needs 00-49 to "win," and PS needs 50-99. Next week Loago will need 00-54 to win, and PS will need 55-99. The number does not only determine victory/defeat but also the margin of victory/defeat -- the storytelling comes in the marginal interpretation. We'll play 10 cycles from April 15 to mid-May. (Or unless we're interrupted by the wider war and have to graciously abandon the timetable + diceroll game experiment.)

    I considered a cumulative effect, that by winning in Round 1, the odds of victory would increase in Round 2. I also considered using another set of random numbers (with cumulative effect) to determine the length of the conflict. But I figured best to make a dice game for a fixed period to give maximum storytelling flexibility around it. This "gambling" methodology could be used for all sorts of conflicts, military and diplomatic, that come up in our game. But it may be a way to make conflict RPs better. It only adds pre-game rules and a middle step to the way we usually RP conflicts:

    [P1: objectives] [P2: objectives] [P1 & P2 interpret "results"] [P1: gain/loss tally] [P2: gain/loss tally]

    [determining probability architecture] [P1: objectives] [P2: objectives] [probability outcome] [P1 & P2 interpret "results"] [P1: gain/loss tally] [P2: gain/loss tally]

    However I think this step can help things a little bit. In our present conflict RP model, players often bicker about who's militarily stronger, and then the stronger player wins (usually a marginal victory). Long OOC threads about materiel specifications and economic strength etc. etc.

    In this model, Ovi and I have determined the relative strength of our countries in advance and left some outcomes up to chance. The RP work will be telling the story of what went right and wrong after we see the numbers come up, not (pardon the expression) dick measuring.

    So today Loago wins a close-shave tactical victory (or the Burukovas do), and the PS attack narrowly fails to achieve its stated objective of establishing a secure base of operations in NW Loago from which to prosecute the rest of the war. This will necessitate a second-wave attack to secure the same territory. Because I lost, I can't advance a next or new set of objectives, I'm stuck trying to achieve my Round 1 objectives again in Round 2. PS casualties are higher than expected but not catastrophic. Burukova loses are low but not nil.
     
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  6. Gunnland

    Gunnland FTR

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    Oh I should add the main reason I want to try out this game: so we can assign smaller countries (and people that don't do tank porn) fighting chances.

    I had a lot of fun with the Seven Days' War. But I was frustrated that the "objective" elements of the conflict were "Kadikistan and Xinhai have a bajillion men" or somesuch made-up number.

    The geostrategy game is always ratcheting up and ratcheting down arbitrary GDP and manpower figures, and sometimes it seems like seeing what your OOC prestige allows you to get away with ICly. I think a better game is if neighbors sort of bilateral determine their relative positions to one another. The problem is that that seems to have no in-world objective component. You can post in a newsthread that your country has a $10 trillion GDP, but not that your country is 2.5 times stronger than your neighbor. But this game means we can find a way to use war to tell the story of relative positions.

    I think it also might speed up conflict RPs, since you have an OOC timetable and a fixed number of victories and defeats to tell the story of.

    But it's experimental, we'll see how it works.
     
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  7. Serenierre

    Serenierre Well-Known Member

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    I commend the Probabilities Technique and am curious as to how such gameplay progresses. I think you're on to something but it still needs to be tested. I would like to try it out for the Western Occitanian insurgency I want to try and roleplay. But overall this RP is a good read. Much appreciation to both players from me.
     
    Last edited: Apr 29, 2019
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  8. Gunnland

    Gunnland FTR

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    Thanks. There could be much more done with it, but for now there's only one dice-roll that determines whether PS succeeds or fails in its objectives, which become increasingly difficult as the war continues. Which reminds me I need to post new objectives for tomorrow. (Diplomatic ones!)

    Halfway through, I'd say it has given a minimal structure that we can be flexible about interpreting, but the best part so far is that it has kept the conflict moving at a nice clip. Here are the results so far:

    [date] [needs] [rolled] [result]
    4.15 50 43 LLC victory +7
    4.18 50 87 RLI victory +37, Battle of Nungwi
    4.21 55 92 RLI victory +37
    4.24 55 30 LLC victory +25, Battle of Amani River
    4.27 60 32 LLC victory +28, Battle of Toma
    4.30 60 ...
    5.02 65
    5.05 65
    5.08 70
    5.11 70
     
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  9. Beautancus

    Beautancus Well-Known Member

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    More than intrigued by this system as well, even if it will involve math higher than my fingers or toes will carry me through (for my own gorilla punch hypothetical battles to come).
     
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  10. Azraq

    Azraq Super Moderator

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    So what do you want to do re. Jugol call for peace? It doesn't intend to invite the either THE RANU or LLC, just national unity gov of Loago, Port Stanley govt, ETCOS/Engellex and Natalia.

    Guess that doesn't stop fighting from happening, it would more be a post war carve up.

    Also super excited for probability template. One maybe to consider for adoption further down the line.
     
  11. Gunnland

    Gunnland FTR

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    PS is ready for peace talks immediately, and will say that had assumed there would be a ceasefire when they were attacked by NAAF airstrikes, though this may be a bit suspicious since the RLI was attacking Toma simultaneously.
     
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  12. Azraq

    Azraq Super Moderator

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    How do we want to proceed with the peace conference? Rather than a Diplo RP that runs out of steam perhaps we preagree outcome OOCly and then do some respective posts in the actual thread and news?
     
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  13. Gunnland

    Gunnland FTR

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    Sounds reasonable to me.

    The Stanleyans are presently in a weak bargaining position, and want a face-saving peace, and they're also under a lot of domestic and international (i.e., Gunnish) pressure to make a big stink about Natalian airstrikes during a "ceasefire" (though this is factually dubious).

    But Prime Minister Butler will be in a wait-and-see mode at least initially. The Stanleyans will be in a stronger bargaining position if the Azraqi/Fante decide they want to partition Loago, in which case the RLI is still in the country and could cause some trouble.
     
  14. Azraq

    Azraq Super Moderator

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    Azraq doesn't favour outright partition of Loago but wants considerable autonomy for the Fante and an unwritten understanding that the Fante region firmly sits within the Azraqi sphere of influence.

    Jugol's ideal outcome is a pan Himyari front against the Communists and Burukova and PDists (though realistically we could live with the last two if they genuinely posed no threat) that sees Port Stanley, Loagan NUG and Natalia working side by side. We'll quietly lean on Natal to at least apologise for Gunn's death but not be too demanding.
     
  15. Natal

    Natal Well-Known Member

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    Hi, sorry for the prolonged absence, as some stuff happened in RL and disrupted quite a lot the 3 day phases. Currently the position of both the NUG and Natal is to just see the war end, that is why Moyo Kamara, the PM of Loago called his project a Loago of communities, as he literally wants to create actually a confederation where provinces can mind their own business without the continuous policing from Maseru. He knows that if things continue like now, war might start between Fante and Wala and that will be much more problematic.

    As for the so called Communities, what I planned was to officially keep them within Loago, but unofficially they will do their own stuff. As for the Fante Tribal Union I was thinking on giving them a special status of letting them be tied to Azraq, with with the all others, it has to still do business through Maseru. Other communities having them own local government might be the Mountain one in the Wala Highlands, which can be influenced by ETCOS, the PDists in the valley, whose name I forgot, one in the Mbabwa Coast, where the Burukovas once stood, to be under the influence of Port Stanley and a buffer one around the central lakes.

    As for the apology it might be a bit complicated, as Gunn is/was seen as the Warlord who might have been the whole mastermind behind it all in Natalo-Loagan view. No one asked him to be in Filabusi or Umtali. Port Stanley violated the sovereignty of Loago, and EHTO member as the NUG and Natal stated that if they would have really wanted to cooperate in fighting the commies, they would have at least associated with EHTO, and do it from the beginning, not at the end, when it was clear that it was ending. Loago even gave an ultimatum to Port Stanley to retreat.
     
  16. Gunnland

    Gunnland FTR

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    PS will tuck tail and retreat with a status quo ante bellum handshake if it sniffs out the prospect of hegemony over the Mabwawa Coast.
     
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