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Vrijpoort

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The Analyst

The Analyst is a weekly news magazine that focuses on bringing its readership the highest quality analysis and discussion on matters of the greatest political-economic import. Read by world leaders, CEOs and corner shop owners alike, if it's printed in The Analyst, you'll want to know about it. Fiercely independent and with an editorial and newsroom team from across the globe, The Analyst calls Vrijpoort, Nedernesia home with news bureaus in Trier, Charleroi and Camp Hill. Subscribe today for weekly postal delivery or digital access, or find an edition at your local newsstand.

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Vrijpoort

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The Analyst

The World
In age of rumbles, where to invest?

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The floor of the Vrijpoort Securities Exchange, Europe's largest by trade volume.

It is a question asked by many far too often: where should I invest? In Europe this question rarely has an easy answer. The latest geopolitical rumblings certainly do not help firms, banks or retail investors decide where they can somewhat safely invest sums for a decent return. Even more importantly, factory openings, major machine and durable goods purchases and other big-ticket decisions are being put off further and further down the road in the latest rendition of the age of rumbles. Investors, CEOs, fund managers, traders and even small and medium sized business owners are pressing pause as they struggle to read the latest developments in Europe. This uncertainty does not bode well for business and it doesn't seem like things will become clearer anytime soon.

A new power duopoly between the DDI and ODS appears to be developing whilst the sleeping giant of Kadikistan and the Rurikgard Pact remain, for now, at rest. When the two largest defence and economic cooperation groups seem to be at loggerheads, nobody wins, especially when both groups are made up of democratic countries or at least democratic elements. Both the DDI and ODS compose the vast majority of the world's open economies which is thus causing great alarm on the open markets. Should a healthcare group in Sylvania go ahead with the large purchase of the high-quality Eiffelandian-made medical equipment, or would that send the wrong message to the Sylvanian government? Does a shepherd in Gunnland sell his wool and mutton to the ODS or DDI market? Will Eiffelendian automakers be able to manage the rapid pace of copycat manufacturing in Polesia?

Kadiki free trade zones have long been a steady source of solid income, but they are limited and size and sometimes come with political baggage. Beautancus, a massive economy, is largely closed off to much of the world except for basic commodity trading. Now to add further confusion, the ODS and Furlanie are caught in the midst of a trade spat. It seems that nowhere is calm enough for business to carry on as usual.

Some have pointed south to the continent of Himyar. Relatively stable if you avoid certain corners, it has a young population (cheap labour) hungry for new products. Governments are eager for investment and readily offer land at cut-rate prices along with hefty tax incentives to open up shop. Open up a factory in Himyar and a firm could benefit from incredibly low production costs whilst still having decent infrastructure to get goods to market. Granted, location is everything and in most of Himyar a large factory would need to be somewhere along the coast so as not to be too far from ports and paved roads. But Himyar still involves risks. Flare ups in conflict zones are common (although usually far from economic centres). Financial systems and regulatory oversight are weak. Language and cultural barriers exist. The continent has mostly seen cross-border investment activity from the two major economic powerhouses of Natal and Pelasgia. Foreign investment is scant, although Nedernesia has been an outlier over the past few decades with its firms and risk-tolerant banks and hedge funds credited for propping up the economy of the Dune Sea, which could see the territory vote next month in a referendum to join said country as a protectorate.

A glossed overview of the global economy provides little reason to cheer but some hope. If the DDI and ODS can come to the negotiating table and resolve whatever differences split and ail them, this would be a hugely significant confidence boost to markets. There is no good reason why these two powerful groups should be at odds with each other when larger potential threats loom.

Gallo-Germania more specifically needs to bring about effective change in its ever constant political quagmire. Furlanie may have irked its neighbours but that is hardly reason to cut it off from preferential market access, at least before both sides have had a chance to calmly and rationally discuss the problem together over a bottle of Retalian wine and board of Furlanie's fine cheeses. Serenierre, another perennial hot spot on the continent, is surely not as big of a threat to the ODS if one takes a closer look. The country prefers a rather modest and mild form of socialism whilst keeping fairly open markets. It also has no direct land border with Kadikistan and its ports are many days at sea away from the sleeping giant, making its strategic importance to the Rurikgard Pact somewhat limited in nature (if they were to engage again in a co-operative manner). Surely the great minds in the ODS capitals can sit down with their counterparts in Villesen and come to an agreement of sorts.

So what is the answer? Where to invest? Until the leaders of the world's powers do their part to calm ruffled feathers you should speak to your financial advisor and hope they have something up their sleeve.
 
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Vrijpoort

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The Analyst

THIS WEEK A SPECIAL DOUBLE ISSUE: SCROLL DOWN FOR SECOND ARTICLE

Organisation of Democratic States
Is Europe's Newest Alliance and Trading Bloc Already Unravelling?


Launched in an admirable bid to bolster the economies of member states while at the same time providing a robust defencive buffer against external forces, the Organisation of Democratic States, or ODS, is Europe's youngest alliance and trade bloc. It seems, however, to be puttering into a classic Folxmashin stall that it may never come out of. The group is led by the the industrial powerhouse and largest military in the group, Eiffelland-Retalia, which launched a campaign against intellectual property infringement in nearby Polesia whose automaker Folxmashin is allegedly stealing blueprints for the world famous Eifellandian autos.

What began as a simple legal bravado quickly developed into a full out economic war between Eiffelland-Retalia and Polesia. Polesia, a tiny economy with nearly zero leverage on the global market, turned to its much bigger and better resourced ally, the Kadikistani Union. Within a week half a dozen ODS companies with operations in Kadiki Special Economic Zones (SEZ) had their preferential treatment walloped, mostly in the form of significantly raised taxes and duties on goods and materials made and extracted there. The move was designed to hit the ODS where it hurts without removing one of Kadikistan's few and best sources of hard currency.

The world was awaiting this clash of titans, two large economic blocs backed by powerful militaries engaged in economic warfare. Polesia even activated the mutual defence clause of the Rurikgrad Pact, albeit solely with 'economic actions' desired. Instead of such a battle we see internal strife within the ODS.

Natal wrote a rather angry letter to its ally in Trier demanding no less than a total about-face. Camp Hill claims that the intellectual property dispute is trite compared to the potential economic consequences of a full and prolonged trade war with Kadikistan and its chums. The letter makes clear in no uncertain terms that Natal would even consider leaving the ODS over this issue if it isn't resolved soon. The reaction from Trier will be closely watched by the markets this week.

This newspaper always likes to approach matters with a level head and seek pragmatic solutions to sticky situations. Eiffeland-Retalia has a world class auto industry and has clear evidence that Folxmashin is indeed copying Eiffellandian models. This is an egregious breach of intellectual property law and cannot go ignored. We imagine that had Folxmashin done the same with Hartnett cars, Camp Hill wouldn't just sit back and let it slide. True, the Polesian automaker has almost no market outside Rurikgrad, but ten years from now that might not be the case. Intellectual property is the backbone of an open market economy and must be defended. However, it should be left to the courts to settle. Trier was perhaps too quick to engage in retaliatory economic and trade measures, thus feeding the Polesian IP troll.

Natal should be finding creative ways to convince its ally in Trier how a more amicable solution might be found. Yes, Natalian companies do a hefty trade in the Kadiki SEZs, especially in the mining sector. Much money is made there. Our analysis, however, shows that the trade just between Natal and Eiffelland-Retalia, counting out the rest of the ODS, is far greater than the business made from the Natalian operations in the SEZs. Natalian companies benefit greatly from having preferential access to the other ODS markets which are some of the most affluent in the world. Eiffelland-Retalia may not be a military might of Cussian proportions, but it is no force to underestimate. There is a reason that Trier has been able to maintain its place in Germania for so many centuries.

Is all this worth giving up just over a silly dispute between automakers? Perhaps Camp Hill should reconsider and not shy away at the first signs of trouble. Then again, since the Natalians are used to sunshine and blue skies, it may not be such a surprise that they seek to follow the fair weather.

Meanwhile the ODS has other interesting issues to handle. The DDI still remains the only true alternative for democratic countries. Johnston Isle appears to be engaging in talks to enter a sort of preferential trade area with other Westernesse States including Ambrosia and Sylvania, the latter of which is a DDI member. Is it even legally possible for an ODS member to be a member of two trading blocs at the same time? How would customs work? How would goods coming into Johnston Isle be handled when they reach other ODS shores?

With Natal pulling hairs and Johnston Isle looking closer to home, one must ask if the ODS was too ambitious in expanding to its peripheral members. Is this the beginning of its end or will the bloc come together and sort out its issues?


Global Security
I Spy a Giant Fleet in the Implarian

Last week the world witnessed a Sylvanian aircraft carrier task force traverse the Northern Passage canal heading west into the Implarian Ocean. It is the first time in years that such an event has been witnessed. The Westernesse power typically keeps its maritime fighting force roughly split between the Implarian and Thaumantic and for good reason. So what is pushing Charleroi to reposition so much fighting power to one side?

Satellite imagery analysed from Compass Rose Satellites, a Nedernesian commercial satellite imagery firm, also shows Ambrosian naval forces convening together just off said country's coast. Earlier this month also saw the leaders of Sylvania and Ambrosia meet together at a retreat near their shared border. Some defence analysts have begun talking about possible military action in the Implarian, pointing at Justosia as the most likely candidate to receive the short end of the stick.

Both Sylvania and Ambrosia are vocal critics of Justosia, a country that routinely spits out harshly worded communiqués with firebrand vitriol against nearly any form of governance that does not match its own. It is no surprise that Avalon has made enemies.

Moving a carrier task force through the canal is a clear signal that something is taking shape. While war games are possible, that would normally be handled with the Implarian, or as the Westernesse natives call it, Silk, fleet. There have also been recent editorials in Westernesse media calling for a so-called pre-emptive strike against Justosia.

Whatever is taking shape in the world's largest ocean, one would hope that Sylvania and Ambrosia are not so short-sighted as to view a military pre-emptive strike on a sovereign nation as the best course of action. For one thing, Justosia has not engaged in any action warranting a military response. Yes, its foreign ministry has a loud bark and does not shy away from making threats, but it has been doing so for decades. So regular are these threats that analysts have been able to decode the unique Justosian-speak and gain a better understanding at what is actually meant, enabling market makers to know whether or not to make a trade or pull investment from the Implarian country.

For argument's sake, let's assume that Justosia is indeed a menace and imposes an immediate danger to Westernesse or other regions: what would a pre-emptive strike look like and what would it hope to achieve?

Justosia is a huge island with other large islands scattered across the Cerealian Sea. It is isolated and far from nearly everywhere else. An attacking force would need to deploy large very long distance supply lines across vast swaths of ocean. The Augustine Islands, a colony of Elben, would be one possible resupply and base location if Elben gave such permission. The next nearest land masses would be Natalia, the Dune Sea or Port Stanley in Himyar. Aside from being much further away, none of those places are likely to play accomplice to a premeditated strike against Justosia.

Justosia is not the richest of countries but it is still highly developed with entrenched industries and a skilled workforce. Its population is largely devoted to its government, even through some Westernesse propaganda would claim otherwise. It is true that the absurd amounts of money dedicated to a disproportionately large defence budget surely harm other areas of the country in need, such as healthcare and education. This has perhaps disappointed many in the country. When faced with an outside attacking force, however, most Justosians will likely put these differences in politics aside and join the call of arms to defend Queen and country.

Perhaps the Westernesse strike would be limited to precision air and missile strikes, not a full on amphibious assault that would likely fail and yet still cost countless lives on all sides. Perhaps the speculation across the world right now is just that, purely speculative. It's difficult to know for sure.

But here is what the global economy could possibly face in the event of such a pre-emptive strike: key shipping lanes between the Long Sea and Implarian Ocean would be disrupted. Many merchant marine vessels could be mistaken for enemy ships and be sunk. The offshore oil fields in Justosia just now beginning to be tapped by Pohjanmaan and Nedernesian companies would be taken completely offline. The sheer fact that large, powerful and democratic countries would engage in such an action would be enough on its own to spook markets and push the economy further into uncertainty.

Add to this the tense situation between the ODS and Rurikgrad Pact, the internal strife among the ODS and the recent earthquake and tsunami in Nedernesia that has hammered the global economic financial centre and you have a recipe for a global recession.

What is it that really irks those who hear the Justosian barks? What truly concerns them? What causes Justosia to bark in the first place? Finding and hearing an answer over the roar of fighter jets, the explosions of missiles, the cries of innocent people dying and suffering, is unlikely. Sitting down at a negotiating table on neutral ground and agreeing to not leave until everyone has been heard and solutions for lasting understanding and peace have been reached is the wiser and more civilised way to go.

Has anyone tried this method, or will they choose the easy but deadlier path and send young men and women to die for nothing?
 

Vrijpoort

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The Analyst

South Implarian
Peace be upon you - upon you be peace

Blood has already been spilt in the South Implarian after Ambrosia and Justosia each lost fighters. The navies of all involved appear to be playing a dangerous game of chicken. Justosia trumpets against foreign aggression as carrier groups from Sylvania and Ambrosia and further ships from Pohjanmaa approach Justosian territory. Meanwhile the DDI and its newfound friend of Ambrosia claim they are just defending their right to freedom of navigation.

It is quite clear that both sides are not being forthright. Justosia has for years invested heavily in its navy at the expense of social services and education while maintaining a loud, some would say obnoxious, diplomatic posture. Despite this the far-flung island country has mostly fired off words and not missiles. Annoying, yes, but not a reason to go to war. Meanwhile Sylvanian diplomatic communiqués have become increasingly bombastic in recent months, almost as unprofessional and embarrassing as the Justosian shouting. At the same time the Westernesse country has repositioned nearly its entire Thaumantic fleet to the South Implarian and sent a large portion of its navy, including multiple aircraft carrier groups, to waters not very far from Justosia. Ambrosia, eager to please it's bigger neighbour, has acted similarly while Pohjanmaa has also sent naval assets of its own (although the number cannot be easily verified as the Free Navy is largely made up of submarines).

To observers beyond the cabinet rooms of all countries involved the situation looks foolish because, well, it is just that. Global markets have been jittery for months and commodity prices, most notably oil, have risen amidst the great uncertainty and fear. It is worth examining why each side is acting in the way they are.

Justosia has traditionally been nationalistic and verbally aggressive, but is mostly harmless. The large expenses for the navy have and continue to extract a toll on other parts of the Justosian society and economy. Choosing how much to spend on a navy and how large it should be is the right of every sovereign country. Sylvania has one of the larger navies of the world but doesn't receive much political flak for steaming it around the world. Perhaps this is because Sylvania typically does not threaten war to any country that so much as writes a short memo of constructive criticism. As Sylvania and its allies embark on their warfront, however, the benevolence of large Sylvanian naval presences around the world might be rethought by other countries. Yet the DDI+ (DDI plus Ambrosia) see the growing navy and rotten rhetoric from Avalon as a potential threat to free seas and thus free trade.

This newspaper has written extensively on the economic fallout of a full war in the South Implarian. It would be nothing short of catastrophic for the involved countries as well as for global trade as nearly a fifth of global maritime trade flows through the South Implarian. So why is diplomacy, in the form of a peace conference in the Azraqi capital of Jugol, coming only now?

There have been no diplomatic overtures from either side since tensions began rising months ago, unless you count the childish statements from the various foreign ministries. Instead of meeting together in a civilised manner, even with an intermediary, both sides have resorted to military posturing. The mobilisations on all sides have already cost immense sums for the respective economies. Had such diplomatic efforts failed, Sylvania & Co. could have resorted to diplomatic and economic sanctions. The bite felt by such measures, especially if they were able to get more countries on board, might curtail Justosian barking. If major economies such as Eiffelland-Retalia (and perhaps the entire ODS), Pelasgia and a few other Gallo-Germanian countries signed on to sanctions they would have visible effects. If Nedernesia could be convinced to prohibit, or at least greatly curtail financial transactions involving the Justosian state and Justosian companies, the reach would be even farther as it would effectively cut Justosia off from a huge percentage of global markets. No one wants to see sanctions and the connected drop in trade and business, but they would certainly be preferable to war. It must be stressed, however, that sanctions are not the same as a blockade since a blockade is considered an act of war.

It is promising to see the involved parties coming to the table in Jugol. Azraq is a neutral location and not terribly far from the theatre of contention. The Azraqi emperor, Boqor Tiirka Illah, has proven capable in the past of bringing hot-headed governments to amicable and peaceful solutions. Interestingly it appears that the brewing conflict in the South Implarian could be awakening Azraq not just diplomatically but also economically and militarily. The Himyari sleeping giant has recently announced its membership into the Dune Sea-based Himyari Agriculture and Infrastructure Bank and more impressively, an astounding doubling of its military budget.

With lives already unnecessarily lost, warships pointing their guns at each other and foreign ministries in a yelling match, will the conference in Jugol be able to calm nerves and deliver peace and trust, or will it be too little too late? That really depends on what the leaders value more: life, peace and prosperity or strategic points and pride.
 

Vrijpoort

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The Analyst

Gallo-Germania
Vrijpoort and the Former Pannonia - What's Going On?

The little city-state that could and the imploding giant to its north had, until very recently, one of the most important trade relationships in Europe. Today, Vrijpoorter troops occupy the former Pannonian province of Thalgau. Three new countries are rising out of the dust along with a handful of smaller regions and city-states and other foreign powers remain on Pannonian soil. We take a closer look at just what exactly is going on and how things might develop.

Occupied Thalgau Moves Closer to Referendum on Political Future

The mostly Germanic province of Thalgau has been occupied by Vrijpoort after the RVEF (Royal Vrijpoort Expeditionary Force) invaded in July in what has become known as the 'Midnight Blitz'. While much derided by many in the international community, the majority of Vrijpoorters and it seems many Thalgäuer approve of the occupation, at least for now. Initially bringing a security umbrella over a small region of the former Pannonia that had no local protective force of its own, the occupation has ensured that essential goods and services flow and operate - crucial for a region that is integrally intertwined with its geographically smaller but economically dominant neighbour of Vrijpoort.

The de facto provincial capital of Lörrach, the largest of the towns, villages and agglomerated suburbs along the border with Vrijpoort, has been busy with debate this summer as mayors and councillors from across the province hash out and debate existential questions on the future of the land and people. Should Thalgau join Bourdignie as a physically separated exclave? Should it join Eugenia? Csegnia? Should it become fully independent? Should it join the Vrijpoort Dominion with status similar to the Meridian Antilles, Batavië or the Dune Sea? All of these options and many more have been discussed in recent weeks with the Vrijpoort government adamant that it wants nothing to do with the civil debates that run long into the night.

A small diplomatic outpost operated by Overseas Relations and Cooperation Vrijpoort has been opened in Lörrach to assist the understaffed and underfunded provincial government with running the province. It provides mostly advice and guidance and, most crucially, access to funding from the Vrijpoort government for things like paying water and power utilities and importing fuel. A diplomat at the small mission told the AP that 'Vrijpoort and Thalgau are like siblings. Connected in a deep way both culturally and economically. But the decision on which step to take into the future lies entirely with the Thalgäuer. We have ensured war does not come to their part of the world. That means they can hold a free and fair referendum to figure out what's next. We look forward to their collective democratic decision and will be here to assist in whatever way we can'.

Peace Comes at a Cost

But it is not all rosy in Thalgau. While the province has escaped the horrors of war seen elsewhere in the former Pannonia, some parts of the frontier with West Zara have seen skirmishes and flare ups of violence. RVEF troops have on occasion engaged with militias and gangs who have fired upon outposts and watch towers. Even rockets have been fired into Thalgau from West Zara over the course of the summer. According to the RVEF, 32 rockets have been shot down by
SkyShield, the Vrijpoorter developed anti-missile system. 2,000 rounds of light weapons ammunition have been fired as well. One RVEF soldier was killed when a mortar shell struck her camp on the border. That resulted in a riposte of artillery shelling and tank fire at the location where the mortar came from.

Military analysts say that normally, if one looks at the history of how the RVEF has operated in the Dune Sea against the terrorist insurgency there, copious airstrikes and even a ground assault would follow the death of a service member. But the unusual restraint exhibited by the RVEF forces stationed in Thalgau can possibly be explained by two main factors. One, crossing over from Thalgau into West Zara with ground troops could have brought the RVEF too close to the main conflict between Tarusa and Remion, which could have risked escalation. Two, the no-fly zone made Royal Sky Force airstrikes difficult.

'Our troops are putting their lives on the line to defend not only Vrijpoort, but our Thalgäuer neighbours from assault by criminal militias and gangs and other nefarious forces. Sadly one of our soldiers lost her life in the course of duty. Yet this sacrifice is a contribution to the future of Thalgau. One of peace, prosperity and self determination. She shall not be forgotten.' This was the official release from the RVEF after the deadly mortar attack.

More recently, there have been rumours circulating in Vrijpoort that the city-state will soon no longer recognise and observe the no-fly zone that was unilaterally implemented over much of the former Pannonia in the spring by Remion and allies. While mostly a financial burden and nuisance to the hugely important civil aviation sector, it has also made securing Thalgau fully very difficult. Sources close to the Senior Minister's Office say that it is very possible that, at least over Thalgau, the no-fly zone will not be tolerated anymore, especially as the small civilian airport in Lörrach could soon be ready to link the region to Bourdignie and other parts of the world. Whether Vrijpoort would still observe the no-fly zone in other parts of the former Pannonia is still uncertain. Airliners such as KLM, however, are likely to avoid the zone for the foreseeable future anyway, if only because the situation on the ground below remains unstable in many areas. Resuming flights from Vrijpoort to cities in what is now Bourdignie, though, is highly likely to be sought after.

Economic Cooperation Must Resume

Pannonia was the largest and most important trading partner of Vrijpoort. No country in Europe aside from the former Pannonia has lost more from this conflict than Vrijpoort. A massive export market for goods and services, tourism, logistics and more has vanished or been chopped up into a mess most businesses wouldn't touch with a 5-meter pole.

Many parts of the former Pannonia have been encountering issues with banking and finance as many international transactions are conducted in Vrijpoort florin or flow through Vrijpoort banks. Businesses and individuals in Bourdignie have been frustrated with temporarily frozen transactions and accounts and lengthy calls with customer service. The two new states are not recognised by Vrijpoort, which means doing business with entities from those places is considered high-risk for Vrijpoort banks. While still possible, it involves a lot more (expensive) back office works for financial institutions not just in Vrijpoort, but around the globe.

Bourdignie is already seeing positive changes. The Vrijpoort Reserve Bank and the Financial Conduct Authority this week published a list of 6 banks and financial institutions in Bourdignie that are duly recognised and approved for seamless business relations with Vrijpoorter entities and banks, clearing the way for a return to instant cross-border trade and banking. Banks and businesses in Csegnia, remarkably, have not faced any of the problems seen in Eugenia or Bourdignie as the Vrijpoort government has recognised Csegnia as the legitimate, albeit authoritarian, replacement government of the former Pannonia. While there are still increased checks and due diligence conducted on business relationships with Csegnian entities due to the changed situation of the country, banks there have no trouble sending or receiving funds through the world's financial hub.

Senior Minister Weldaad also made remarks in the Senate last week that her government was 'considering' opening a diplomatic liaison office in Bourdignie, which is what the mandarins call a high commission (embassy) for places that are not officially recognised. This would all but guarantee full economic links between Bourdignie and Vrijpoort, which is critical for the new country as it seeks to stabilise after emerging from the civil war largely unscathed. For Vrijpoort it would bring back at least some of the lost trade link lost to the quagmire. As for Csegnia and Bourdignie, the Vrijpoorter high commission in Kispest remains closed for security reasons and Vrijpoort has made very clear that it has no intention, at least for now, or recognising or dealing with Eugenia. Both of these, however, could change sooner than one would think as the yearning for access to lost markets pressures the Vrijpoort government to reconsider.

Perhaps the world's freest market might, uncharacteristically for this past year, go back to basics of doing business with anyone so long as a tidy profit can conceivably be made.


The Analyst Pty Ltd is a privately held publication based in the Principality of Vrijpoort where journalists have for centuries been free to report and publish as they wish. We do not have any connection to the Vrijpoort government or any government for that matter. For questions or inquiries please write us at: The Analyst, ATTN: Editorial, Laangstraat 54, 4002 Vrijpoort.
 
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