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1. Oceana is making a move to seize control of the southern island group of Earusea.
2. The initial force committed is based on two carrier battlegroups and one marine battalion. Two more marine battalions are being readied in Oceana.
3. The first target is Osea. Oceana intends to seize the island with its initial force and establish a base of operations there that can isolate the rest of the island chain. The second landing at Eurocon is intended to be a pincer from Osea and Oceana, likely with support of additional reinforcements from Oceana.
4. Oceana has not yet declared war or hostility against Earusea IC. Oceana intends to trigger an incident which will start hostilities when its forces are in place. ICly Oceana does not expect this to genuinely convince the international community, only to create sufficient ambiguity.
5. Oceana's broader goal is to establish a military presence in these islands that will protect the Empire's western approach.
6. A major contributing factor is Emperor Aldric II is dying, he will die at a narratively-appropriate time, and he has decided that he will use his remaining time to gamble on big deeds. His domestic political position is currently very strong.
This is all, of course, IC secret.